kaiyun·开云体育:太阳经理透露选秀策略欲重现辉煌

　　科学分享类 长期征稿 英译中

Want to Really Boost the Economy?

Stay in the ParisAgreement

想提振经济？那就好好坚守《巴黎协定》

　　

　　President DonaldTrump yesterday justified pulling the United States out of the Paris climateaccord largely, he said, because it would hurt the United States economy.

　　当地时间6月1日，特朗普以拖累美国经济为由，宣布美国将退出《巴黎气候协定》。

　　"As of today,the United States will cease all implementation of the nonbinding Paris accordand the draconian financial and economic burdens the agreement imposes on ourcountry," Trump said at yesterday's (June 1) news conference.

　　特朗普在6月1日的新闻发布会上表示：“即日起，美国将停止落实不具有约束力的《巴黎协定》，结束这项协定强加给我们国家的苛刻的财政和经济负担。”

　　But the idea thatthe Paris Agreement will harm the economy is nonsensical, said Jonathan Koomey,a lecturer in Earth Systems at the School of Earth, Energy & EnvironmentalSciences at Stanford University. For one, the agreed-upon emissions cuts arenonbinding; the only legal obligation is that the United States report itscarbon emissions. So if the required cuts are too damaging to the economy, theUnited States is free to revise its emissions goals, he said.

　　斯坦福大学地球能源与环境科学学院地球系统的讲师Jonathan Koomey称，认为巴黎协定拖累美国经济这一点，简直是荒谬至极。随便举个例子说吧，这个多方共同议定的减排目标是没有约束力的，美国唯一需要尽到的法律义务就是公布其二氧化碳排放量。因此，如果所要求的减排量不利于经济增长，美国完全可以自己修改减排目标。

　　"You can'thave nonbinding standards that are draconian," Koomey told Live Science.

　　“本就没有约束力的标准何来苛刻之说。”Koomey在与Live Science的对话中讲道。

　　Beyond that, mosteconomic analyses suggest that environmental regulations may actually boost theeconomy, both because they spur innovation and because they prevent harm,Koomey said.

　　除此之外，他还表示，大多数经济学分析都表明了，环境法规既能保护环境，又能刺激创新，事实上只会提振经济。

Harm reduction

减少伤害

　　In his speech,Trump cited statistics from a coal-industry-funded think tank, called theNational Economic Research Associates, which claimed that the burdens from thenonbinding climate agreement would cost about $2.7 million in total jobs lostby 2025. He claimed it would cut production in the paper industry by 12percent, the cement industry by 23 percent, the iron and steel industry by 38percent, and the coal industry by 86 percent. He also cited a $3 billion pledgethe United States made to help developing countries reduce their carbonemissions. (The annual United States budget is $3.8 trillion, meaning thepledge amounts to less than 0.1 percent of yearly expenditures.)

　　特朗普在演说中援引了煤矿业智库美国国家经济研究协会的数据，认为到2025年，这个毫无约束力的气候协定将会导致美国损失共270万美元，而造纸、水泥、钢铁、煤炭等工业的产能分别下降12%、23%、38%和86%。此外，他还指责美国当时承诺每年支援发展中国家30亿美元帮助他们减排。（美国的年预算是3.8万亿美元，那笔钱其实只占其中的0.1%都不到。）

　　The idea thatenvironmental regulation hurts the economy is not a new one, Koomey said. Withalmost any new regulation, entrenched interests say thecosts will harm the economy and eliminate jobs.

　　Koomey表示，认为环境法规会拖累经济这种想法也不是什么新鲜事儿了。几乎每项新规的推出，既得利益者们都认为这些规定会阻碍经济发展，减少就业。

　　"In virtuallyevery case that's been false," Koomey said.

　　“但他们每一次都是错的。”Koomey说。

　　The reason issimple: Environmental pollution costs money, reduces productivity and killspeople, so reducing it typically has financial benefits for society. Forinstance, because carbon dioxide acts as a lung irritant,fully implementing theClean Power Plan set up by President Barack Obama would lead to about 3,500fewer deaths by 2020, according to a 2015 study in the journal Nature ClimateChange. A peer-reviewed study conducted by the Environmental Protection Agencyin 2001 found that the Clean Air Act, which was passed in 1990, prevented160,000 premature deaths in 1990, 130,000 heart attacks, 86,000 emergency-roomvisits and 13 million lost days of work due to the negative health consequencesof air pollution. The benefit-to-cost ratio, according to the EPA, was 30 to 1.

　　原因再简单不过了。环境污染花费大、降低生产率、危害生命，因此降低污染通常都能够给社会带来经济效益。比如，《自然气候变化》杂志2015年的一项研究表明，由于二氧化碳对肺部具有刺激性，切实实施前总统奥马巴推出的《清洁电力计划》，到2020年就能减少约3500人死亡。美国环境保护署2001年进行的一项同行评审的研究发现，1990年，由于通过了《清洁空气法》，过早死亡、心脏病发作和进急救室的人次分别减少了16万、13万和8.6万，因为空气污染带来健康问题而失业的人数减少了1300万。根据环保署的数据，治理环境的效益成本比率是30:1。

　　"Environmentalpollution costs society money and it kills people," Koomey said. "Soif you fix that problem, then society is better off."

　　“环境污染既伤财力又危害生命，”Koomey说，“如果环境得到治理，社会将会更加富裕美好。”

　　That's not evenaddressing the trillions of dollars that will be spent if climate change leadsto some combination of coastal flooding, droughts, water shortages, heat waves,crop loss, famine and war, he added. According to a 2015 study by Citigroup,negative effects from climate change could total $44 trillion if the UnitedStates fails to shift to more renewable energy sources.

　　以上的效益成本比甚至还没算入气候变化导致的沿海地区洪灾、旱灾、缺水、热浪、庄稼损失、饥荒和战争等种种所花费的巨资。花旗集团2015年进行的一项研究表明，如果无法完成向可再生能源的转型，美国将要花费44万亿美元去应对气候变化带来的负面影响。

Innovation andwealth creation

刺激创新，创造财富

　　However,environmental regulations and climate change goals don't just prevent harms andlead to job loss from more polluting endeavors, they also fuel innovation andnew technologies, which directly grow the economy and produce new jobs, Koomeysaid.

　　Koomey称，环境法规和气候变化目标虽然会导致更多与环境污染相关行业的工人失业，但有助于减少对社会和人类的伤害，还会刺激创新和新科技的产生，直接拉动经济增长，创造出更多新岗位。

　　As new regulationsor incentives come on board, companies find ways to meet improved standards inthe most cost-effective way possible. Thus, cleaner technologies get cheaperand become a bigger portion of the environment.

　　每当新规或新政策出台，各公司都会找到尽可能最经济有效的方法去迎合那些改进的高标准。因此，清洁技术越来越实惠，在环境治理中占据的地位也越来越重要。

　　For instance, thecost of solar energy has plummeted 80 percent in the last five years, whilewind technology has dropped in cost by two-thirds over the same period, and arenow often cheaper than more-polluting energy sources, Koomey said. That islargely thanks to natural efficiencies that come with scaling up manufacturinglevels. Technical innovations ―such as the use of carbon-fiber bladesrather than metal blades in wind turbines, the elimination of extra gears, andcomputers that use sophisticated modeling to best harness and release energyfrom wind and solar power plants ―have also played a role, he said.

　　例如，过去五年里，太阳能和风能的成本分别大幅度降低了4/5和2/3。这两种能源现在往往都比污染更严重的能源要便宜。这很大程度上归功于制造水平和自然效率的提高。此外，风力涡轮机以碳纤维叶片代替金属叶片，去掉多余的齿轮，计算机使用先进的模型以更好地利用和释放风能和太阳能发电厂的能源等，这些技术创新对太阳能和风能成本的降低也起着重要作用。

　　"We'resubstituting smarts for parts, we're substituting better materials and figuringout more clever ways to do the same tasks," Koomey said.

　　“我们正以脑力或更好的材料去代替电脑部件，在面对环境问题时，也同样会找到更多更机智的解决方法”，Koomey称。

　　Improved energystorage has progressively increased the fraction of energy that can be reliablypulled from renewable sources such as wind and solar, without causing energyshortages and brownouts, he said. For instance, energy companies are now usingold, abandoned coal mines to generate hydroelectric power during the day bypouring water deep into mines, then pumping it out at night, when the energygrid has much lower power demands, he said.

　　改进的能源储备方式使得风能和太阳能等可再生能源的储备逐渐增加，我们不必再担心能源短缺或电压不足等问题。比如，能源公司白天利用废旧的煤矿坑进行水力发电，当晚上能源网格的功率需求较低时我们就可以使用水电。

　　"Peoplecomplained about wind and solar technology 30,40 years ago and said if you puteven a few percent of that on our grid it will destabilize it, and that turnedout to be nonsense," Koomey said.

　　三四十年前，人们对风能和水能技术颇有怨言，认为那些能源会破坏电网。结果证明，这根本就是无稽之谈。

　　Now, utilitysystems can easily use 30 to 40 percent renewable energy without causing anyinterruptions in power supplied. With regulations in place, that same cycle ofinnovation is likely to proceed for years.

　　如今，供电系统使用的电源中30%-40%都来自可再生能源，但并没有出现任何电力中断现象。如果早点出台相关法规，这样的创新技术可能会提早好几年。

　　OF course, a majorsource of carbon emissions comes from cars, and electric vehicles have nottaken off in the same way as solar and wind power have. However, China hasalready mandated that a certain fraction of its cars must be electric by 2025,and because it's such a huge market, any major car companies will need todevelop attractive electric vehicles for this market if they want to compete,Koomey said. By relaxing fuel-efficiency standards and removing momentum forproducing electric cars, Trump's policies will only encourage U.S.-based carmanufacturers to lag behind, he said.

　　当然，二氧化碳排放主要是来自汽车尾气，而电动车还没有像风能和太阳能那么普及。然而，中国政府已经规定了到2025年的电动车的市场占有率。中国这么大一个消费市场，任何想要分得一杯羹的大型汽车公司都会努力研发足够吸引客户的电动车。而放宽燃油效率标准，打击生产电动汽车的势头，特朗普的政策只会使美国汽车制造商远远被甩在世界后头。

　　All of these newtechnologies create jobs and products that grow the economy, Koomey said. Areport by the Rocky Mountain Institute, a clean-energy think tank, estimatesthat "decarbonizing" the economy will add $5 trillion to the economy.A 2016 study, funded by former U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson,billionaire and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and hedge-fundmanager Thomas Steyer, found that reducing carbon emissions by 80 percent by2100 would actually save money, because the increased investment in renewableenergy would be more than offset by reduced costs associated with fossil fuels.

　　所有的新技术都会创造出新的就业机会和新产品，拉动经济增长。据清洁能源智库落基山研究所的一份报告估计，减少二氧化碳排放会给社会增加5万亿的经济收入。美国前财政部部长Henry Paulson，亿万富翁、前纽约市长Michael Bloomberg和对冲基金经理Thomas Steyer三人2016年共同资助进行的一项研究发现，到2100年减少80%的二氧化碳排放量，实际上是在节省社会开支，因为对可再生能源日益增多的投资比降低化石能源成本的投资补偿要多得多。

　　People who opposeclimate regulations "are looking at this exactly wrong. They think this issomehow this great burden." But entrepreneur Richard Branson "hascalled the climate problem the single greatest wealth creation opportunity inhuman history," Koomey said.

　　反对气候法规的人"觉得这是个实实在在的错误，他们把这当成一个沉重的负担。"但是企业家Richard Branson认为，“解决气候问题是人类史上创造财富的最佳机会。”

　　https://www.livescience.com/59354-why-climate-reductions-help-economy.html

— END —